The pattern repeats across decades. Selling shoes online, renting your spare room to strangers, building a search engine when search seemed solved. Each looked foolish at the time.
They paid off precisely because they looked foolish. A bet everyone agrees with is already priced in.
Being contrarian is not enough. You also have to be right.
Contrarian and Correct
The valuable position is a true belief that most people think is false. Contrarian and wrong just makes you a crank.
The hard work is in the and.